Recently, Forbes released a report entitled "2019 Eight Health Care Forecasts", and the arterial network compiled the main content of the report for you:
On a global scale, medical services in 2019 will be a value-oriented year, as the focus of our “Results-Based Healthcare†is globalization. This will lead to a more mature risk sharing between healthcare providers, drug discovery organizations, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), bringing business value to the provider. In addition, access to affordable quality care will be the main political agenda for the upcoming 2019 elections in emerging markets such as Asia, Africa and Central and Eastern Europe.
As the boundaries between the retail, IT and healthcare industries become increasingly blurred, Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon (GAFA) and Baidu, Ali Health, and Tencent (BAT) will begin to dominate the personal care market in the East during 2019. . Non-traditional digital market providers such as Ali Health, Tencent, Amazon, Google, Apple, Microsoft and IBM will dominate the home health sector, providing the public health system with the necessary impetus to ensure access and affordability of care. . We also expect future investment in pharmaceutical and equipment research and development to be more targeted to meet the unique needs of emerging markets in Asia. Finally, we predict that 2019 will be a realistic test of the two most popular healthcare technologies of the decade—artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain.
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The top eight forecasts for the global healthcare industry in 2019 are as follows:
Prediction 1: 15% of global health care spending will be tied to a value-based model
During 2019, the healthcare industry will continue to shift to a value-oriented model. We expect that by the end of 2019, up to 15% of global health spending will be linked in some way to the concept of care based on value or outcome. For countries that currently spend nearly 10% or more of their gross domestic product on health care spending, the momentum for this shift will be even more urgent, such as the United States, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, Germany, Canada and Japan. .
During 2019, the VBC Initiative will continue to transition from economic models or cost-effective measures to more health outcomes and treatment priorities, through data-driven risk-sharing frameworks and sustainable reimbursement models, enabling both providers and payers. Benefit.
Prediction 2: The value of artificial intelligence (AI) healthcare applications will exceed $1.7 billion by 2019
We estimate that by the end of 2019, artificial intelligence will be worth more than $1.7 billion in the healthcare IT applications market. We further expect that by operating an artificial intelligence platform in selected healthcare workflows, productivity will increase by 10-15% over the next two to three years. However, the pricing of artificial intelligence solutions remains critical as users are often reluctant to invest extra budgets for such IT functions. It is an effective measure to use a cost-effective approach to clearly demonstrate that the potential return on investment of both parties helps maintain market growth.
Throughout 2019, the focus of artificial intelligence and machine learning will be on human-machine interaction. More specifically, artificial intelligence will begin to see results and rewards, especially in imaging diagnostics, drug discovery, and risk analysis applications.
Prediction 3: Digital medical technology for hospitals will grow by 30% and is expected to exceed $25 billion
During 2019, the use of digital healthcare will continue to go far beyond traditional medical systems and enable individuals to manage their own health. According to our estimates, by the end of 2019, digital medical technology that caters to the hospital environment will grow by 30% to exceed the global $25 billion market. Chronic diseases and population aging that increase the cost burden will be the main drivers of digital healthcare solutions such as RPM devices, telehealth platforms, PERS and mHealth applications.
In addition, favorable reimbursement policies for clinically relevant digital medical applications will continue to expand medical services beyond physical medicine, including behavioral health, digital health therapy, dentistry, nutrition, and prescription management.
Prediction 4: Asia becomes the new local innovation center for global pharmaceutical and equipment OEMs
Historically, most medical innovation channels have flowed from the West to the East. Now, as emerging markets account for 20-30% of the pharmaceutical industry's value at a double-digit growth rate (10-15%), a range of global drug and equipment OEMs are trying to tailor it to Asian healthcare organizations and Asians. New products to subvert this trend. We expect that by 2019, up to 10% of healthcare R&D will be used for innovation in emerging markets in Asia. For example, in terms of growth, the Asia-Pacific region is the strongest market, with more than 30% of global advanced cell therapy trials going on here.
In addition, we believe that the Asia Pacific region will witness the genomics revolution in the coming years. Especially China, it will play a leading role in the field of genomics in Asia. This ever-changing product development model and geographic promotion model have led us to believe that the number of “unicorn start-ups†(worth more than $1 billion) and foreign direct investment will increase with the demand for medical services, population aging and income. increase.
Prediction 5: Hospital professional analysis shifts from big data to meaningful small data
As the healthcare industry is familiar with data management workflows, we anticipate that a number of specific professional analytics solutions will be prominent among these vendors: efforts to investigate drug utilization, treatment variability, improve clinical trial eligibility, reduce billing discrepancies, and Self-care plan for major chronic diseases. We predict that by the end of 2019, 50% of healthcare companies will have a repository dedicated to accessing, sharing, and analyzing real-world data for their organization.
Looking ahead, the primary goals of healthcare payers and providers using analytics will include: population health management (identifying individuals at risk), identifying the best treatment pathways (minimum cost, best outcome), and implementing patients, payers, Automated operation of doctors and procedures. In addition, the convergence of artificial intelligence and analytics will continue to drive analytics into mainstream applications over the next two to three years.
Image from Unsplash official website
Prediction 6: Healthcare will be the dominant voice application
Healthcare is at a critical point, with professional voice operators such as Nuance, Orbita and leading technology companies (Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft) adopting targeted voice technologies for medical industry use cases. We expect that, despite 2019, HIPAA-compliant healthcare voice and chat bots will gain a prominent position as these technology giants actively participate in voice solution competition.
However, the current level of development of speech technology makes it suitable only for limited speech applications, such as fast medical material search and speech-based transcription-directed interaction, but is not suitable for conveying lengthy information. In the future, the application of voice technology to censored clinical use cases, such as aged care, chronic disease management, and physician assistants, will provide growth opportunities.
Prediction 7: Blockchain changes from hype to true initial commercial implementation and generates ROI
During 2019, blockchain technology will shift from perception and speculation to early commercial deployment, and show the initial return on investment in the corporate B2B key program. We expect that by the end of 2019, 5%-10% of healthcare-focused enterprise blockchain applications will shift from the pilot phase to partial or limited commercial availability.
In addition, the selective loss of the ICO (Initial Coin Offering) and the proof of concept of the startup will eventually generate few commercial use cases by the end of 2019. This will attract early adopters who are waiting for the ultimate opportunity to create their much-needed network effects in the healthcare arena and explore how to use blockchain technology in the healthcare sector.
Prediction 8: Innovative private insurance model shakes the healthcare payment industry
There is no doubt that today's health insurance policy is aging and cannot meet the individual needs of individuals. Therefore, we expect the growth rate of the health insurance industry to be below 1.5% in 2018. To ensure future growth in global insurance benefits, many insurers have begun offering data and digital-driven health care services to their policyholders and reducing potential claims costs.
We believe that by the end of 2019, 5-10% of health insurance plans will be linked to interactive policies in some form, driven by lifestyle and health data. Frost & Sullivan's research shows that interactive policies will continue to be popular around the world as it enables insurers to use personal data to achieve personalized premiums, discounts and rewards.
In short, 2019 is an exciting year for the healthcare industry.
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